Why So Many Dark Markets Come And Go
Understanding the Situation: Why Are All the Darknet Markets Down?
The current state of the darknet has raised questions among users and observers alike. Many are left wondering, why are all the darknet markets down? Below, we explore the possible reasons and implications behind this sudden occurrence.
- Since its first survey in 2011, Global Drug Survey(GDS) has been exploring the growth and impact of darknet drug markets.
- Data protection obligations also apply to the vendor in sending product advertisements and informing potential customers.
- We built a data acquisition architecture to collect data from White House Market, one of the largest darknet marketplaces in 2021.
- To increase the classifier’s performance, we used a mix of under- and over-sampling methods to balance the number of product listings between the categories.
Further, any testimonials on this website reflect experiences that are personal to those particular users, and may not necessarily be representative of all users of our products and/or services. We do not claim, and you should not assume, that all users will have the same experiences. Marketplaces on the Dark Web even feature rating and review systems, so potential buyers can identify “trustworthy” sellers. With all these features, and the appeal of cybercrime riches, it’s no wonder these black markets are experiencing a huge rise in supply, according to the Dark Web Price Index. In addition to the possibility of making big money on these Dark Web marketplaces, people seek the Dark Web for other reasons as well. This part of the internet also hosts vast amounts of child pornography, with some websites reaching tens or hundreds of thousands of users.
The ever-changing nature of dark web marketplaces makes it vital to stay on top of the main sites worth monitoring. High-profile markets sometimes close overnight, and new markets surge to enormous levels of popularity in no time. This article takes you through the top five dark web marketplaces currently worth keeping track of for potential threats in 2023. DDoS attacks prior to market shutdown have been analogous with the “canary-in-the-coal-mine” to a market seizure by an international law enforcement effort. Law enforcement could have easily taken over the Cannazon admins’ accounts and posted the PGP message on Dread.
Nonetheless, the stark outlier in product origins of seized goods and product offers on dark markets is the US. Around 5% of dark market counterfeits were listed as originating from the USA, while only 0.4% of goods seized at borders come from the US. Again, such a discrepancy might be due to biased expectations by law enforcement, as searches are sometimes based on shipment origins (Männistö et al., 2021). Thus, border seizures might miss counterfeits originating from countries suggested by dark markets, such as the US. For example, Tobacco, pharmaceuticals, metals, electronics, and accessories (e.g., sunglasses) could be scanned for counterfeits when originating from the US.
Key Factors Contributing to Market Outages
Several factors may explain the shutdown of darknet markets. Here are some of the most significant:
- Law Enforcement Actions:
The most evident reason could be increased efforts by law enforcement agencies worldwide. Similar to previous crackdowns, authorities might have managed to infiltrate or monitor operations on these platforms, leading to coordinated take-downs.
- Security Breaches:
Darknet markets often face risks associated with hacking. If significant breaches occur, operators might decide to take sites offline to mitigate damage and investigate the extent of the compromise.
- Market Saturation:
Moreover, cybercriminals buy cards and dumps not only in specialized shops but also on forums, via instant messaging channels, and behind closed doors in private deals. To reach true success in the carding niche, newly emerging markets need to focus on the constant influx of vendors and buyers – something that the above-mentioned markets have been actively attempting to do with their heavy advertising campaigns. We’ve explored some popular underground forums to see where Joker’s Stash’s sellers and buyers may be headed to next. Throughout the analysis, we’ve observed that though the carding landscape is very active among cybercriminals, it seems that several marketplaces may be seeing more traffic due to Joker’s Stash’s closure. Criminals migrated to these primarily drug markets in ever greater number after they also began offering money laundering services, as Hydra did, Chainalysis said.
The distinct possibility exists that the market has become oversaturated with too many platforms. When competition intensifies, some markets may collapse as they cannot sustain themselves economically.
- Operational Challenges:
Technical issues related to servers, hosting, or the underlying technology (like Tor) can contribute to outages. If admins cannot maintain their infrastructure, markets may become temporarily or permanently inaccessible.
- Internal Disputes:
Civil strife among market administrators or disputes with vendors can lead to unusual site behavior or complete shutdowns. Often these internal conflicts can result in a lack of trust and operational stability.
We also see differences in some product categories observed during seizures and counterfeits offered on dark markets. As already described, seized products are most likely biased through the activities and procedures adopted by authorities affecting estimations on which product types are affected. Examining the counterfeit categories, we see that watches account for most of the value in both cases but are more prominent on dark markets overall. Watches might be more challenging to identify or detect as counterfeits as other products (e.g., shoes, clothes, Tobacco) in seizures, perhaps due to very high-profit margins, an increased effort is put into making fake watches more difficult to identify.
Garantex is a large cryptocurrency exchange based in Russia that we’ve discussed previously in our research due to its role in money laundering. In fact, Garantex is the biggest service we covered in our 2022 Crypto Crime Report section on money laundering carried out by cryptocurrency businesses headed in Moscow City, the financial center of Russia. Although OMG became active in July 2020, its deposit volumes were so low that it was more of a personal operation than a darknet market. However, the platform recorded high inflows as soon as Hydra went down, most of which came from Hydra counterparties. We also analyzed any email addresses extracted from the user id fields of the PGP public keys and observed that many popular email providers like protonmail.com or gmail.com were used. To store acquired data and to retrieve and update login session information for the user accounts we used to crawl the marketplace.
An example is Operation Bayonet, in which law enforcement agencies took over an entire darknet market and obtained user data, thus effectively reducing the activity of vendors and customers (Bradley & Stringhini, 2019). Informing potential users that their identity is not completely hidden, even when purchasing on the darknet, may also impact their perception of risk. The target group of the research, composed of potential customers, ranked the reliable delivery of goods (TF 18) as the most important trust factor when buying illicit drugs on the darknet.
Recent Trends and Observations
Observing recent developments can also provide insights into the current situation:
- Decrease in User Activity:
Reports indicate a decline in user traffic to several major darknet markets, which could signal a shift in preference or a movement toward safer alternatives.
- Emergence of New Platforms:
With the decline of traditional markets, newer platforms may quickly replace them, leading to instability in the landscape.
- Increased Visibility:
In certain cases, the rise in media exposure around darknet activities might push authorities to act promptly and dismantle markets.
Implications of the Shut Down
The ramifications of having all the darknet markets down can be far-reaching:
- Vendor Disruption:
Sellers who rely on these platforms for income may find themselves scrambling to adapt, leading to potential increases in illegal activities elsewhere.
- Consumer Shift:
Consumers may turn to alternative sources, which could lead to more unregulated and dangerous interactions in the illegal marketplace.
- Criminal Economy Reevaluation:
The temporary absence of markets might instigate a reevaluation of how the criminal economy operates, leading to a transformation in the structure of illegal goods distribution.
Frequently Asked Questions
What should users do while markets are down?
Users should remain cautious and avoid turning to less trustworthy platforms. Engaging in illegal activities carries risks, especially when avenues for those activities are unstable.
Will markets return?
It is likely that some forms of darknet markets will eventually return, though they may be different from their predecessors in terms of operational security and functionality.
How can users protect themselves?
For those who continue to navigate the darknet, using reliable security measures such as VPNs and encrypted communication methods is critical to maintain privacy and security.
In conclusion, the question of why are all the darknet markets down reflects numerous interconnected factors ranging from law enforcement actions to market dynamics. Understanding these elements can provide valuable insight into the unpredictable nature of the darknet economy.
